While the tariff fallout and global energy tensions continue to play out, recent shifts in the job landscape indicate some concerns may be on the horizon in the labor market.
The last official jobs report prior to the government shutdown was for September 2025, though it was not released until after the shutdown concluded, on November 20. That report confirmed 119,000 nonfarm payroll jobs were added, and the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.4%—confirming better-than-expected numbers.
However, unofficial data from November shows some concerning trends, casting worry ahead of next week’s official jobs report, slated for release by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on December 16.
Most concerning is the report from outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas, which announced layoff plans totaling 71,321 in November, lower than the cuts announced in October, but still high enough to bring total layoffs for 2025 to 1.17 million, the most since the 2020 pandemic. The total is 54% higher than the same 11-month span one year ago.
Reports from ADP (Automatic Data Processing) indicate private-sector job losses of 32,000 as of December 3, with sectors like tech and retail reporting significant layoffs. Both reports suggest a weakening labor market despite the September figures.
Corporate restructuring, AI advancements and tariffs are likely the main reasons behind the job losses.
While Amazon cites corporate retooling as the reason behind its recent cuts, fellow tech giant Verizon is slashing 13,000 jobs, most of those due to AI advancements.
In all, tech companies are reporting losses greater than 17% compared with one year ago, with AI itself being cited for 54,694 layoffs this year.
Tariffs are also cited as a reason behind the cuts, driving more than 2,000 layoffs in November and nearly 8,000 year-to-date.
While restructuring remains the most common reason, closings and market or economic conditions factor into the numbers as well.
Since the Great Recession of 2008, only twice have layoff numbers risen above 70,000 in November—once during the 2008 downturn and again in 2022.
Also, it is worth noting that since 2008, companies have shifted away from end-of-year layoffs.
“It was the trend to announce layoff plans toward the end of the year, to align with most companies’ fiscal year-ends,” said Andy Challenger, chief revenue officer at Challenger, Gray & Christmas. “It became unpopular after the Great Recession especially, and best practice dictated layoff plans would occur at times other than the holidays.”
According to the Challenger report, hiring prospects have dimmed as well, with employers reportedly announcing 497,151 planned hires, 35% lower than hiring prospects one year ago at the same time.
However, the data provided by the Labor Department has yet to reflect the apparent surge in layoffs, raising concerns about what the next BLS report will show in about a week.
The Federal Reserve, however, continued its cuts to the benchmark rate, lowering the overnight borrowing rate by another 0.25 percentage point, to 3.5% to 3.75%, the third such cut this year.
The increased layoffs, slowdown in hiring and lukewarm job growth likely impacted its decision to cut the rate again.
