After filing a record-setting public offering on May 20, speculation has grown that SpaceX, Elon Musk’s satellite and rocket company, could eventually merge with Tesla, the electric vehicle maker he also leads.
Some analysts believe such a combination could happen as early as next year, while others remain far less convinced.
Traders on Kalshi currently place the probability of a merger by May 2027 at roughly 33%. Expectations briefly climbed after SpaceX announced its IPO plans, only to fall back below 40% the following day.
On the surface, a merger could appear logical. Both companies are led by Musk, and both have become increasingly intertwined with artificial intelligence, autonomous systems and advanced computing.
“Step by step the holy grail could be combining SpaceX and Tesla in some way to give the connective tissue between both disruptive tech stalwarts looking to lead the AI revolution,” wrote Wedbush analyst Dan Ives, who has said he expects the companies to combine by next year.
A merger could also fit Musk’s broader strategy of owning and controlling more of the infrastructure behind artificial intelligence.
Some Tesla shareholders, however, have pushed back on the idea, arguing that a merger could dilute Tesla shareholders and distract the company from its core electric vehicle and energy businesses.
The SpaceX IPO filing itself offered a rare look inside one of the world’s largest, most ambitious and traditionally secretive private companies.
The 227-page document revealed previously undisclosed details about SpaceX’s board, revenue, profits, expenses and long-term strategy.
It also laid out the company’s sweeping mission:
“To build the systems and technologies necessary to make life multiplanetary, to understand the true nature of the universe, and to extend the light of consciousness to the stars.”
SpaceX plans to continue rapidly manufacturing and launching satellites for its Starlink communications network.
The prospectus also states that the company intends to “harness the Sun to power a truth-seeking artificial intelligence that advances scientific discovery, and ultimately to build a base on the Moon and cities on other planets.”
Achieving those goals will require enormous amounts of capital, helping explain the company’s decision to tap public markets.
Despite SpaceX’s rapid growth, its ambitions currently far exceed its revenue.
The company generated $18.7 billion in revenue last year, up 33% from the previous year. But SpaceX remains deeply unprofitable.
After posting a $791 million profit in 2024, the company recorded a $4.9 billion loss in 2025, following a $4.6 billion loss in 2023.
Losses have continued into 2026. SpaceX reportedly lost $4.3 billion in the first three months of the year on revenue of roughly $4.7 billion.
Much of that spending is tied to massive investments in artificial intelligence infrastructure.
Last year, SpaceX spent approximately $12.7 billion on AI, compared with $4.2 billion on Starlink and $3.8 billion on other space-related projects, including rockets.
In just the first three months of this year, the company spent another $10.1 billion, including $7.7 billion on its continuing AI buildout.
SpaceX does not expect those losses to continue indefinitely.
The IPO filing outlines what the company describes as a potential $28.5 trillion revenue opportunity, calling it “the largest actionable total addressable market in human history.”
That estimate includes approximately $370 billion in space-enabled solutions and $1.6 trillion in connectivity, including $870 billion in broadband and $740 billion in mobile services powered by Starlink’s low-Earth-orbit satellite network.
The largest piece of SpaceX’s estimate comes from artificial intelligence, which the company values as a potential $26.5 trillion market.
Included in that figure is what SpaceX describes as a $2.4 trillion opportunity for space-based data centers, along with $760 billion in potential consumer subscriptions.
The company also estimates approximately $600 billion in advertising opportunities and as much as $22 trillion from what it calls “enterprise applications.”
The numbers are enormous even by Musk’s standards and reflect both the scale of SpaceX’s ambitions and the expectations being placed on the company.
Whether investors believe those markets can actually be captured remains another question.
The blockbuster IPO could still raise enormous amounts of capital and further increase Musk’s wealth.
Musk currently owns a significant portion of SpaceX, including a 12.3% stake in common shares and 93.6% of Class B shares, giving him approximately 85.1% of the company’s voting power.
That structure is designed to ensure Musk retains substantial control even after the company goes public.
SpaceX also disclosed that Musk’s salary has remained unchanged since 2019 at $54,080 per year.
His real compensation opportunity comes through equity.
Under the disclosed plan, Musk could receive 15 tranches of 66,666,665 shares each if SpaceX reaches a series of market-value milestones in $500 billion increments, eventually reaching a valuation of $7.5 trillion.
There is another condition attached.
Musk would only receive the full award if SpaceX also establishes a permanent human colony on Mars with at least one million inhabitants, and if Musk remains employed by the company.
Meanwhile, Tesla shares rose 1.2% Wednesday to $421.71.
Ross Gerber, an early Tesla investor, has called a Tesla-SpaceX merger an “inevitability” and said a combined company could become the “Berkshire Hathaway of AI” because of the range of technologies and infrastructure it would control.
Tesla shares are down roughly 6% this year, but remain approximately 25% higher over the past 12 months.
For now, the idea of a Tesla-SpaceX merger remains speculation.
But with SpaceX preparing to enter the public markets and both companies increasingly tied to Musk’s broader ambitions in artificial intelligence, energy, robotics, communications and space, the possibility is likely to remain a major topic for investors.
