As the Middle East conflict drags on, once again the United States has halted their
retaliatory attacks against Iran with the understanding that negotiations are set to resume.
However, Iran has given no official word that they are ready to go back to the negotiating
table.
After calling off strikes over the weekend President Donald Trump declared that talks were
scheduled to start again on Monday. He also claimed there was a deal in place on the Strait
of Hormuz, with an agreement to follow on “denuclearization”.
Iran’s Foreign Ministry says it is in talks with Oman to establish a safe, “temporary route” for
vessels through the waterway, while adding that these negotiations have no bearing on
whether the Strait is “open or closed”.
Since attacks resumed again last month, the belief that the Iranians were fed up with the
regime was doubted again, as the funeral for the late Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali
Khamenei brought a sea of mourners into the streets of Tehran, sending a message to the
United States and Israel that their attempt to break the Islamic Republic had failed.
Instead of appearing broken, Tehran used the event as a message of defiance, unification
and a determination to affect what happens next.
Some analysts observe that the war has underlined Iran’s leverage in the Strait of Hormuz
and claim that any attempt to control their nuclear aspirations will be underpinned with the
recognition that their control over the vital choke point will be understood and accepted.
Washington has given no indication that such a claim would be accepted or honored.
While any sort of fee or toll system to be paid for vessels traversing the strait would, in
theory, provide substantial revenue, some see Tehran’s effort to control the strait as a move
toward political legitimacy instead of economic gain.
“The symbolic part is more important for the Iranians than revenues,” said Alex Vatanka of
the U.S.-based Middle East Institute. “They want some kind of symbolic acceptance that
the Strait is Iran’s. It’s about accepting Iran as the sovereign power over the Strait.” Iran’s
leadership has echoed this position, while any word from the Trump administration does
not even consider it.
For Tehran—which denies seeking a nuclear bomb—uranium can wait, but consolidating
its position over control of the Strait cannot. That could mean entrenching its influence
through transit arrangements, coordination mechanisms or even charging for services
along the corridor, which carries a fifth of the world’s oil and liquified gas supply.
Aaron David Miller, a former U.S. Middle East negotiator, said Washington’s military
campaign had failed to break Iran’s leverage, leaving U.S. diplomacy with a flawed ceasefire
whose implementation has become a battleground in its own right.
“The Iranians are not going to move to the nuclear file until they’re relatively confident
they’ve achieved this new status quo, said Miller. “They want to make sure that Trump
understands, and that the world understands, that there’s no going back to February 27.”
Trump took to social media on Monday, calling the Iranian regime “unbelievably
duplicitous” in that talks were expected to resume while instead Iran is focused on talks
with Oman. Trump also downplayed any timeline to complete the negotiations, claiming he
is under no political pressure since he is not running for reelection.
Despite the midterm elections approaching in November, and the Republicans holding just
a slim majority in the House of Representatives, the President insists he is under no time
constraints to resume talks.
“If I’m given a chance to let a lot of people live, I want to give that chance,” said Trump. “So
I’m under no time constraint. You know, I don’t happen to be running, but a lot of very good
Republicans are running,” he added.
Trump went as far to call this the “last chance” for an agreement that would benefit all.
When pressed for what the difference is between this and past attempts, Trump said “I
want to give them every last chance before decapitation” and that the Strait could be fully
opened by Tuesday in what he calls “phase one” of the agreement. The second phase is
denuclearization, which he conceded would “take a little while”.
For Iran, the strategic unpredictability has become a new weapon in a war that has oddly
enough, strengthened its negotiation position, giving the regime new tools to slow oil
supply and attacking U.S. allies in the Gulf.
Iran has concluded its best strategy is to “maximize the pain that they can impose on the
United States and its partners in the region,” said Vantanka in a recent podcast.
“They are now at a point where they don’t think just sitting back and having one round after
another of diplomatic talks is the best way forward. They are trying to shake things up to try
to get Trump’s attention and see if they can get a different result.”
Meanwhile, oil prices dropped significantly over the weekend after Trump stopped the
attacks. But the President did not hold back in criticizing the oil companies for raking in
massive profits in lieu of the conflict with Iran.
“They’re making too much money. Okay, based on a shortage, they’re making too much
money. I don’t like it, and I should be the last one to say because I’m a big free enterprise
guy,” Trump told reporters in the Oval Office.
“Nobody bigger, and you know, you’re going to see oil when we’re finished with Iran,” Trump
continued. “You’re going to see the prices drop through the floor. But they made too much
money, too much money. Chevron, too much money. Exxon Mobil, too much, too much
money.”
Chevron and ExxonMobil reported record profits for Quarter 2, with Chevron boasting a
384% increase over the previous year for $12.1 billion in profit. ExxonMobil showed a
record profit as well, at $14.5 billion. Shell took in another $9.8 billion.
The president added that oil companies need to “get your consumer (retail!) Oil Prices
DOWN, NOW!”
While historically a profit hawk, the president continued to chastise big oil. “When you
look at one company where they made 12 times what they made the year before, they
ought to give some of that back to the public, and they better cut the retail price, the
consumer price.”
“Too much money. You’re surprised I’m saying it. I’ll say it loud and clear. I’m not happy
about it,” Trump said.
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